In short:
The global birth rate crisis continues to deepen even though governments spend billions on financial incentives.
In this episode, Jim Penman explains why these programs fail, why prosperity rather than poverty drives fertility downward, and how scientific research may offer the only workable solution.
His approach reframes the crisis as a psychological and biological issue rather than an economic one.
Introduction
In this episode of Conversations with Jim Penman, Jim discusses why the global birth rate crisis is accelerating and why traditional solutions are failing.
He provides updates on his ongoing research, explains the psychology behind declining fertility, and outlines what governments must do differently.
Falling birth rates affect economic stability, aged care systems, and long-term national viability.
Jim argues that without new scientific approaches, many countries may face irreversible decline.
To learn more about Jim’s work, visit the Jim’s Group’s official website.
Despite growing media attention on low fertility worldwide, Jim believes most public discussions overlook scientific evidence and deeper behavioural trends.
Why Are Governments Failing to Address the Global Birth Rate Crisis?
Governments across Europe and Asia continue investing heavily in childcare subsidies, bonuses, tax benefits, and parental leave programs.
Yet none have succeeded in lifting fertility.
Jim explains why these efforts fail.
There is no intervention ever seen that has any effect on the birth rate, none at all.
Key insights from the discussion:
- Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Hungary have spent billions.
- Financial support does not increase fertility in affluent societies.
- Governments keep repeating policies that have failed for decades.
- Public belief that children are too expensive does not match real-world outcomes.
According to the United Nations Population Division, more than 60 percent of the world now lives in countries below replacement fertility, and no financial program has reversed the trend.
What Did Jim Penman Reveal About the Real Causes of Falling Birth Rates?
Jim argues the crisis is psychological and biological rather than economic.
Prosperity changes behaviour, priorities, and even brain chemistry.
Why Prosperity Lowers Birth Rates
- People focus more on lifestyle and comfort.
- Higher incomes increase individualism and reduce community reliance.
- Personal goals outweigh long-term family commitments.
Jim describes a consistent pattern visible across history.
The wealthier you are, the fewer children you have. It is completely the opposite of what people think.
What History Shows
- Ancient Greece experienced a collapse in fertility during periods of wealth.
- The Roman Empire saw similar declines.
- Modern nations follow the same trajectory.
Jim’s conclusion is clear.
Prosperity changes psychology, and psychology determines fertility.
How Is Jim’s Research Attempting to Solve the Crisis?
Jim outlines his current research program through Epigenes and La Trobe University.
The team is studying how dopamine responses, maternal behaviour, and motivation change in prosperous environments.
What Experiments Are Underway?
- Testing how mild food restriction affects behaviour in animals.
- Screening more than 1,000 substances for similar neural effects.
- Narrowing to nine compounds for detailed animal testing.
- Examining weight loss drugs such as Wegovy for psychological benefits.
Jim believes an early treatment could be ready for human trials within a year if funding is available.
What the Team Hopes to Achieve
- Improved mental well-being.
- Stronger community bonds.
- More positive parenting instincts.
- A shift toward family-oriented priorities.
This approach aims to address root causes, not surface-level symptoms like the cost of living.
How Is the Global Birth Rate Crisis Affecting Countries Today?
Jim highlights how East Asia is experiencing a rapid decline.
What Is Happening in Japan and South Korea?
- Japan’s population fell by 900,000 people in 2024.
- Birth rates reached their lowest level since 1899.
- Marriage rates continue to fall, reducing the number of potential parents.
- South Korea’s fertility rate sits at 0.7, which is the lowest in the world.
Jim expects these numbers to decline even further.
If Japan is at 1.1 now, it will fall to South Korean levels. South Korea will fall further unless something changes.
According to the OECD, aging trends will push pension and healthcare costs sharply upward while shrinking the workforce.
Why Are Experts Getting the Global Birth Rate Crisis Wrong?
Jim says many policymakers rely on narrow viewpoints that do not connect relevant disciplines.
Why Academic Silos Lead to Wrong Conclusions
- Economists may not understand neuroscience.
- Sociologists may not consider evolutionary patterns.
- Policymakers depend on surface-level surveys rather than scientific causation.
Jim brings these disciplines together to form a broader picture.
When you look in silos, you cannot make the connections that create real change.
His upcoming book explains these connections through demographics, ancient history, biology, and psychology.
Is There Still Time to Fix the Global Birth Rate Crisis?
Jim argues that the crisis is solvable if governments support scientific research.
What Governments Should Do
- Redirect a small portion of subsidies to research.
- Support trials into treatments that improve dopamine balance and behaviour.
- Focus on evidence rather than assumptions about money.
His research head estimates that 100 to 200 million dollars, a small fraction of current spending, could fund a working solution.
Why One Country Could Change Everything
- A successful trial in one nation would create a global template.
- Rising fertility, better morale, and improved mental health would attract attention.
- Other countries would follow evidence-based success.
Jim believes scientific solutions can reverse the crisis in a sustainable and affordable way.
FAQ
Why are global birth rates falling?
Jim says the decline is caused by prosperity-driven psychological changes rather than financial hardship.
Do childcare subsidies raise fertility?
No. Countries offering large payments have not seen meaningful increases in birth rates.
How soon could Jim’s research produce results?
Animal trials could identify a treatment within a year. Human trials require additional funding.
Which countries are most affected by declining fertility?
Japan and South Korea face the most severe declines, with fertility rates approaching historic lows.
How much funding is needed to test Jim’s solution?
About 100 to 200 million dollars could support the research needed to identify a treatment.
Key Takeaways
- The global birth rate crisis is worsening despite decades of subsidies.
- Prosperity and psychology, not money, shape fertility patterns.
- Jim’s research explores how dopamine and behaviour influence family decisions.
- Historical data show declining fertility in prosperous societies across eras.
- A science-based treatment could reverse the crisis more effectively than incentives.
Want to hear Jim Penman’s full insights?
Watch the podcast episode to learn why global birth rates are collapsing and how Jim believes scientific research can offer a real solution.
Interested in more updates from Jim Penman?
Visit jimpenman.com.au to join the mailing list, read his latest commentary, and be notified when his new book is released.